The Hundred Million Pound Elephant in the Room
People around every corner
Seem to smile and say
We don't care what your name is, boy
We'll never turn you away
There’s a song called ‘Ferry Cross the Mersey’ in which the songwriter talks of a land that is welcoming to anyone, no matter who you are or where you come from. He longs for this place because it provides him sanctuary from the busy, backstabbing, paranoid nature of everyday life. This song, as its name suggests, is named after the River Mersey. It was recorded and released by a band called Gerry and the Pacemakers in 1964. Proving to be a hit, the song peaked at number eight in the UK Singles Chart and number 6 in the US Billboard Hot 100. The song’s lyrics pay tribute to the city the river flows through before pouring out into the sea.
Liverpool is a fairly large city that lies in the North West of England, right where the estuary of the River Mersey meets Liverpool Bay. She is, and always has been, a working class city. Her constituents’ ancestors arrived at the docks as merchants, migrants, or slaves mainly during the Industrial Revolution. The city is home to the oldest Chinese community in Europe, as well as Britain’s oldest Black community. Liverpool was hence seen as the national runt; Scousers mistreated and made fun of because of how the rest of the country perceived minorities - dirty, uncivilised, thieving. It was this mix of a working class mentality, multiculturalism, and a shared understanding of each other’s struggles that glued the city of Liverpool together. Its people realised that they were better off working together while putting aside their differences, because their own country failed to help. Through collective resiliency and against all the odds, the people of Liverpool created a sanctuary for themselves and for others in need.
The Pacemakers’ roots run deeper within the hearts of Liverpudlians than just this song however. There’s another famous song that most followers of European football would probably recognise. That song is of course, You’ll Never Walk Alone; the anthem of the city’s proud football club, and serves as another tribute to the character and soul of this place, a land that’ll never turn you away.
Walk on through the wind
Walk on through the rain
For your dreams be tossed and blown
Walk on, walk on
With hope in your heart
And you'll never walk alone
Liverpudlians and Liverpool supporters are a loyal people. All that matters to us is that you play for the badge on the shirt, not the name on the back of it. If you do that, you will always and forever be a Red, and maybe even have a chant dedicated to you. If you don’t, chances are you won’t be around for very long.
But every so often, Anfield is blessed with a player that transcends loyalty. What truly separates the good from the great at Liverpool is that the most honorable players to ever put on a red shirt have all done something that others could not. They didn’t just fight for their club. No, they did much more than that. They stood up and fought for this city and her people.
Only a legendary few, The Anfield Royalty, have had strength enough to carry this passionate city, with its loyal people, on their shoulders. There was God. St John. King Kenny of Scotland. And who could forget Stevie and Carra, Liverpool born and bred. For legendary status to be bestowed upon you, not only do you have to be worthy of our loyalty, but you also must earn a place in the hearts of the ordinary people. Supporters have a sort of sixth sense for knowing when a player lives and breathes Liverpool Football Club just as much as us.
Like the fumata bianca emitting from the chimneys of the Sistine Chapel, Anfield has its own unique way of letting the world know when they have a new leader. The stadium unites in voice and erupts into rampant chorus to reveal their Chosen One. Currently, the Kop sings for one player like nobody else.
Make no mistake about it - the Kingdom of Liverpool belongs to Mohamed Salah.
Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Mo Salah! Running down the wing
Salah la-la-la la-ahh, The Egyptian King!
The Egyptian King, crowned by Liverpool fans home and abroad, is one of the few remaining from a dwindling group of players that took over the world not long ago. His partners in crime, Sadio Mané and Roberto Firmino, have moved onto different chapters of their careers. Jordan Henderson and Fabinho - the team’s perennial workhorses - have similarly left after the club decided that a reset was necessary and that the dire situation the previous season had put us in called for revolution, not evolution; “Liverpool FC reloaded” as coined by Klopp.
Sooner or later, Mo’s reign will also come to an end. It truly cannot be understated how pivotal and instrumental he has been for Klopp ever since he arrived. He has broken, and continues to break, various records every season; take a peak at the dedicated ‘Records’ section on his Wikipedia page. Aside from the broken records, individual honours, and trophies, the unique combination of his play style, work rate, constant availability, and world-class offensive output is practically impossible to find in other players. But that’s not all.
He, like the city he represents, performs best when his back is against the wall; an underdog who embodies the character of an entire population. Mo escaped exile in London, found safe haven in Liverpool, and is able to leave his adoptive home as an English, European, and World Champion.
How will Liverpool find the rightful heir to their throne? Is it even possible to replace someone like Mo Salah? If yes, how? Who?
These aren’t questions that the club’s staff nor fans want to think about, but the writing might as well be on the wall at the AXA Training Centre. The immensely daunting challenge of replacing Salah should be keeping the recruitment team up at night. This is a problem that is probably going to require an expensive solution, and therefore, the decision they make has to be right.
To try to figure out who Salah’s successor should be, we should first ask ourselves another question: what exactly does he do?
A whole lot, it turns out. His performances over the last year suggest that he possesses a Swiss Army knife of attacking competencies, making it nigh on impossible to mark him. He’s not just a world-class goalscoring machine. Salah also takes a lot of dribbles and touches, especially in and around the penalty area, as well as being in the 84th percentile for chances created. He’s so well-rounded that there’s even debate about whether he plays more like a winger or a forward. His ability to translate instinct and talent into tangible output is the reason why he’s amongst one of the best in history.
Don’t worry, I’ll back myself up. Let’s compare him to some of the most prolific attackers of the last couple of decades. Players who have torn apart their respective leagues with goals, assists, or both. Looking at each player’s best 7-season period statistically, it should cover most, if not all, of their peak seasons. The names will be revealed afterwards, but first try to guess which stats are Salah’s (careful not to scroll down too far!). The players included in this comparison are Mohamed Salah (’16-’23), Thierry Henry (’99-’06), Wayne Rooney (’07-’14), Karim Benzema (’16-’23), Harry Kane (’16-’23), Sergio Agüero (’13-’20), Robert Lewandowski (’15-’22), Luis Suárez (’13-’20), Cristiano Ronaldo (’09-’16), and Lionel Messi (’09-’16).
Most of these guys were involved in approximately one goal per game, few managed slightly more, and then there are those two.
Alright, ready with your final answers?
Here they are:
It’s not scientific by any means, but the data can give us a snapshot of how each player performed statistically during the peak of their powers. It shows us that Salah, involved in almost a goal a game on average, belongs with the crème de la crème.
The only players who are arguably still at their peak, albeit in its latter stages, are Salah and Kane. Both of them have been outperforming their career averages for a number of years, and they continue to age like fine wine. At the time of writing, Kane has 13 goal contributions (9G+4A) in 8 league games, while Salah has 11 (7G+4A) in 9. There’s an argument for Lewandowski too, but he has fallen from the astronomical heights he rose to during his fruitful years at Bayern Munich. While he’s impressively averaging a goal contribution a game at Barcelona so far, it’s consistent with his career average. He has regressed towards the mean by his own standards and so, in my opinion, his career has reached its twilight years.
Kane was brought in by The Bavarians to plug a gap that the departed Lewandowski left. Bayern want to eke as much production out of him as possible before the well dries up. Even though he’s already 30, ancient in footballer years, the fee Bayern could potentially end up paying for him after including add-ons is in the realm of £100 million. That’s just how today’s transfer market is, and there’s no guessing how this winter’s market is going to be, let alone next summer’s.
It’s not guaranteed that it’d take a fee similar to Kane’s for another club to pry Salah from Liverpool’s clutches. In fact, if you consider his image, global brand and commercial appeal, it’s not hard to imagine that Mo will attract more offers similar to the reported £150 million bid that Al-Ittihad tested the waters with this summer. Rumours circulated that they considered making another bid potentially rising up to £200 million, and more incoming offers are expected.
Salah’s selling point is that you get a consistent elite level of output with constant availability. No player listed above came to within 10 games and 300 minutes played of him. Not only does he play almost every game of every season, he also tends to play the full ninety plus stoppage in a high pressing Jürgen Klopp team. Since 2018, he has missed only 11 games for Liverpool and Egypt combined, 3 of which were due to COVID-19. Of the 249 league games Salah has played between 2016-23, he started 234 times, wasn’t substituted in 157, averaged 83 minutes of playing time per game, and played the equivalent of 229 ninety-minute matches in total, and counting. This means that if Salah plays, and chances are he plays every minute, his team practically starts each game already 1-nil up. Need I go on?
So here’s what we have to do: replace one of the best forwards that has graced European football over the last 20 years, maybe even ever. Michael Owen once made a very good observation that scoring more goals helps you win football matches; removing Salah from the team means that we’re subtracting at least 38 goals over a league season. In his time as a Red, he has never finished a season with less than 35 goal contributions in all competitions, his average being 43 per season.
Yup, that’s the size of the task at hand.
Somehow, Liverpool need to replace their adopted King. They may decide to remain steadfast in trying to extract the most value for money or they could buck that trend and spend on a big name.
The Blockbuster
Alright, let’s get the easy, boring one out of the way.
Liverpool Football Club isn’t poor. It’s just that they choose not to flex their financial muscles as often as some other top clubs. Fans of other clubs used to like to joke about when FSG (then NESV) spent £35 million on a relatively unproven Andy Carroll over a decade ago. It was a sobering lesson that they learned soon after taking over the club. Ever since, the transfer strategy has revolved around finding value for money through data-backed decision-making.
Occasionally, and not without plenty of confidence and assurance, the purse strings are loosened and mega deals for mega players are completed as swiftly and silently as possible. Virgil Van Dijk is still the club’s record signing, and while there was some drama in failing to sign him in the summer of 2017, there was no doubt about the club’s intention and insistence on signing him when they finally completed a deal for him only months later. No other player was deemed to be an acceptable option. Fabinho and Alisson further bolstered our ranks shortly after. In total, deals worth north of £180 million were completed for these three alone within a 7-month span. Although the pursuit ultimately failed, the club was even willing to offer what would’ve been a British record fee of £111 million for Moisés Caicedo this summer. It can be frustrating at times, but the owners have time and again put their money where their mouth is when it really counts.
Of the current crop of elite non-Liverpool forwards in Europe, there’s one that I enjoy watching the most. If money wasn’t an obstacle, if we really, really wanted to sign a big name just because we can, then this guy would be my dream signing.
Can you guess who he is?
Those numbers belong to none other than Arsenal’s Bukayo Saka. He makes the game of football look like a walk in the park. My favourite trait of his is his touch; his boots as soft as silky sheets on which the ball rests as he changes direction like a frantic impala being hunted by a cheetah, twisting, turning, and tangling the legs of opposing defenders. We’d be unbeatable if we had him, I’m sure of it.
But I just don’t have it in me to go through his stats. I don’t even want to try to guess how much it’d take to sign him.
He can do this, he can do that, he passes well, he can shoot, dribble, yada yada yada…
There’s nothing new about who he is, what he does, and what he could become. Would I love him in our team? Absolutely I would. Do I think that we have any chance of signing him? Absolutely not. However, I’d be more than happy to be proven wrong.
Now that’s over, let’s dig deeper into the more exciting stuff.
The Future World-Beater
I’m going to stick my neck out and make a prediction: Khvicha Kvaratskhelia will retire as a Ballon d’Or winner. What a year he’s had. His 12 goals, 10 assists, and partnership with the equally dynamic Victor Osimhen were instrumental in helping Napoli win the title by sixteen points last season. He played so well that he won the Serie A MVP and Champions League Young Player of the Season awards. Oh and he was also nominated for the 2023 Ballon d’Or at just the tender age of 22. He can do, and is doing, everything. And I mean everything.
Liverpool fans may remember him from when he tore Joe Gomez to shreds at il Stadio Diego Armanda Maradona last season. He predominantly plays on the left, but he has the qualities, such as being competent with both feet, to be effective on either flank.
Positions are also gradually getting more dynamic in modern football. Players still have default positions in defensive and offensive phases of play, but more emphasis is now placed on tactical flexibility; teams morphing in and out of different shapes, manipulating space, and getting the right players in the right areas at the right time. The aim is to create confusion, disorganisation and chaos in the opposition’s defensive structure. And we just so happen to have an agent of chaos…
So far throughout his career, Khvicha has steadily shown signs of improvement. His output continues to improve year-on-year since his seasons in Russia.
Khvicha has always demonstrated good proficiency in finding his teammates, and while that has been improving, the gains in goal output is even more encouraging. But there’s one other aspect of his game that could be oddly beneficial for Klopp.
Being the more naturally creative player, Khvicha generates more shot- and goal-creating actions per game than Salah, but interestingly, one of the reasons why he has more is because of his knack for drawing fouls.
Set pieces were key to Napoli’s success last season as they scored 17 goals from them, the second-highest in Serie A. They’ve also been a major source of goals for Liverpool for a number of seasons. According to WhoScored.com, Liverpool scored the most goals from set pieces last season, coincidentally also 17. With the likes of Trent, Szobo, Robbo, and Tsimikas delivering the ball, plus Van Dijk, Matip, Konaté, Núñez, Jota, and Alisson waiting to pounce, it’s almost more difficult not to score.
But if the near one goal contribution a game somehow doesn’t entice Klopp, then the stuff he does off the ball will surely whet his appetite.
Just look at the amount of tackles, interceptions, and ball recoveries. If he were to play on our right side, he could help us solve one of our main defensive weaknesses. With Trent not being a great defender and now also moving into midfield, the space he vacates is usually exploited by opposing teams. But with Khvicha in the side, this may not be as much of a problem as exemplified by the number of tackles he makes all over of the pitch, but the final third is where he’s most tenacious. Klopp’s high-pressing system is deployed in part to create chances. Khvicha has produced more defensive actions leading to a shot in the final third per game on average than Salah.
However, it’s unlikely you’ll be able trust him to be your primary goalscorer, as Mo is for Liverpool. Khvicha’s more of a wily wide attacking midfielder or winger rather than the pacey wide forward that Salah is. This season, he’s scoring roughly one goal every ten shots taken, while every seventh shot that Salah takes beats the goalie. Hence, while he’s more than capable of being one of the team’s creative forces, more onus would be on the front line as a whole to fill a scoring void the size of 20-25 league goals a season on average. Klopp and his coaching staff will need to rethink, maybe revolutionise, the team’s offensive dynamics. It’s ‘Liverpool Reloaded’, after all.
His signature would’ve probably cost somewhere in the ballpark of 80 to 100 million euros during Summer 2023. It’s anyone’s guess how much it’d take to secure his services, as it depends on his performances throughout the rest of this season, and who knows what the transfer market will be like next summer.
The Diamond in the Rough
Want an elite forward but can’t seem to afford the big names? Are you trying to find a cheaper option that doesn’t skimp on quality? Well, today’s your lucky day! Keep it on the down low, okay? Listen, it just so happens that I’ve come across a couple of fantastic deals. You could say that I know a guy who knows a guy, who knows a couple of wingers that’ve been doing their business while keeping under the radar. They offer top of the line output for dollar store value. Often overlooked, but not overpriced. One club’s loss could be your gold mine. What’s not to like?
As someone who wasn’t Jürgen’s first, second or third-choice signing, you could say that Salah was once a diamond in the rough. I, for one, have no regrets over missing out on Christian Pulisic, Julian Draxler, and Julian Brandt. Mo, along with the other two-thirds of that infamous trio that won it all, cost Liverpool the equivalent of what it’d take to buy one Declan Rice today. What a crazy world we live in.
Chelsea are willing to pay for anything that moves, so it’s no surprise that they reportedly offered £35 million for Michael Olise recently. He rejected the chance to sit at Stamford Bridge every other week (has anyone checked on Roméo Lavia recently?) and his new Crystal Palace contract apparently has an increased release clause.
But before you get too excited, this next one is a special offer just for you my friend. Between you and me, I’d go for this guy. He’s better, cheaper, and his performances over the last year have been similar to the likes of Cody Gakpo, Gabriel Jesus, and Rodrygo, according to FBref. And he’s vastly undervalued.
Remember the name: Amine Adli.
At a glance, both of them contribute a goal or assist every other game. Adli seems to have more of an eye for goal than Olise does, but it’s hard to compare offensive outputs when Olise has been playing for a Palace side consistently around midtable while Adli is playing for a team at the top of theirs. We need to dig deeper.
Firstly, Adli is more alike Salah in that he looks to get into dangerous shooting positions. His shots tend to be much closer to goal than Olise’s and even Salah’s, which suggests that he looks to make penetrating runs into the box. His shooting accuracy was also excellent and it’ll be interesting to see if we see him have more of a licence to shoot given that.
Secondly, Amine was not just highly impactful, but he was one of the biggest difference makers on his team last season. When he’s on the pitch, his team tend to score 0.76 goals more than they concede per 90 minutes, predominantly because they tend to score 0.54 more goals when he plays versus when he doesn’t. If you took this metric and compared him against his teammates last season, it turns out he outperformed the likes of Moussa Diaby, now impressing at Aston Villa, Jeremie Frimpong, named in the team of the season, and Florian Wirtz, currently one of the hottest prospects in Europe.
Transfermarkt lists his market value at just €25 million. Told you he was undervalued.
Adli seems to tick all the boxes to be a Liverpool signing. He’ll be twenty-four next summer, would’ve accumulated a lot of first-team experience by then, and should be primed to enter his peak if he continues to develop at his current rate.
The Salah at home
“Why do we need to buy Salah’s replacement? We already have plenty of players in the dressing room.” said John from the driver’s seat. Jürgen crossed his arms and sulked away in the back, not only because he didn’t get what he wanted, but also because he was sure that there was nobody else in his squad that provides the same tasty offensive output as Salah.
This would be the riskiest option and would put an immense amount of pressure on our academy products to make the step up with near-instant impact. Judas Raheem Sterling, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Curtis Jones are the only three academy graduates to make at least 100 appearances for Liverpool since Steven Gerrard did over 20 years ago. If we were to go down this road, there really is no other option other than the 1v1 specialist, Ben Doak.
He’s the youngest player in this season’s squad, only turning eighteen in November of this year. He’s so raw that there are barely any numbers to go through. I mean, look:
He’s still in the first year of his first professional contract, played in only a handful of cup games, and has a total of 67 minutes of playing time in a top division. That’s the extent of his entire professional career to date. It wouldn’t be wise to try to guess what impact he could bring us, simply because there is zilch to go off of.
So when the numbers fail us, despite the ever-changing, ever-evolving world of football analytics, we tend to fall back into our comfort zones, to go where everybody knows our name, into the warm, familiar, security blanket of YouTube.
I take everything back, give him the number 11 shirt already. This guy is legit.
Put him in an iso situation against a left-back and he’ll dribble past them as if he’s unmarked. He glides past people with such ease and instinct that only few can replicate, and he’s doing it at such a young age.
Whether or not we sign a new winger to replace Salah, there’s little doubt that Doak can be a main feature of this club for years to come if given the appropriate mentorship, but more importantly, if he’s willing to dedicate himself to the cause. There’s a special player in there somewhere.
“The king is dead, long live the king!”
This summer was one of many farewells, but the biggest send-off was dedicated to Bobby Firmino. He was a dedicated servant of the club for the better part of a decade, ever since the bleak days of midtable purgatory. Bobby understood what it meant to play for Liverpool Football Club. It was not only the relentless running or the selflessness or the no-look goals that made him special. It was all of that combined. A player of clear talent, he knew how to use it for the betterment of his team; a true testament of a world-class player. The red half of the city took the time to show him the appreciation he deserved - by immortalising him; Bobby is Liverpool, Liverpool is Bobby.
I can’t imagine what the atmosphere in the stadium and city will be like for Mo. It’s going to hurt, and hurt a lot. In my time as a fan, no player other than Gerrard has captured the awe and affection of this fanbase as much as he has. Not Torres. Not Van Dijk. Not even Suárez. That’s why it’ll mean so much for us to give him a farewell worthy of a King. But ‘till that day comes, long live the Egyptian King!